Before their 33-10 Test match defeat by New Zealand we explored the reasons behind Wales’ disappointing winless Autumn and concluded that media overconfidence building up expectations after some marginal results has had its part to play in the general doom and gloom. As ever, one extreme is invariably followed by the other and in reaction to defeats against Argentina (26-12) and Samoa (26-19) the ‘builders’ then produced, among others, the descriptions; abject, predictable and one-dimensional.
Wales’ personnel and style hasn’t changed as significantly as the comments over that time, but then predictable and one-dimensional aren’t a problem when they produce points and results – then it’s just playing to your strengths. When the tide changes however, as it has for Wales, it’s a different matter. Given their performances against Argentina and Samoa and the criticism sent their way, it was always going to be interesting to see how Wales would deal with the visit of the world champions. The coaching team would never admit it publically of course, but even at something close to full power and peak performance Wales would have trouble subduing New Zealand, so Warren Gatland and his lieutenants needed to find a way to change the odds and give themselves a chance of winning.
Judging by Wales’ start to the Test it seems highly likely that in preparation Gatland would have run his analytic eye over the All Blacks’ match against Italy in Rome. On the face of it, New Zealand’s 42-10 victory in that Test looks clean and efficient enough, but it was much harder-earned than the scoreboard illustrates against an Italy team determined to try and keep their visitors guessing. “I was impressed with the variety of their play, they were as good as any team we’ve played this year,” admitted Conrad Smith after. The score was 13-7 to New Zealand at half time and 19 of the All Blacks’ points came in the last 13 minutes – indication that the simple ‘keep-them-thinking’ tactics were, at least in part, effective.
So to the Millennium Stadium and Wales’ variation on the theme. Nothing has the potential to alter the odds like the unexpected, so when it’s 0-0 in the first few minutes, you’re at home against a team you haven’t beaten since 1953 and you get a penalty with a decent kicker in your line-up, you kick for the posts right? That’s what everyone was expecting, New Zealand certainly were. Wales had other ideas, they had one of Gatland’s oldest tricks, the 13-man lineout, secretly waiting in the wings. Rhys Priestland punted for the corner, finding touch midway into the All Blacks’ 22, but crucially it wasn’t quite as far as Wales wanted and their plan was put on hold. Luke Charteris comfortably took the throw as the All Blacks opted for maximum weight in the defensive maul, Wales were repelled and the chance was wasted.
A few minutes later on the other side of the field, Ma’a Nonu was penalised for not moving away after a tackle just inside the New Zealand half and (once burned, twice shy, etc) Wales had a chance to atone for giving up the earlier penalty points and go for the posts. Sticking with the unexpected however, and with the 13-man lineout drive clearly still in mind, Priestland again went for touch. Mindful of his first kick that wasn’t as close as Wales needed, the fly-half went for the 5m mark but put too much on it, the ball went dead and New Zealand got a scrum back on the halfway line. A few phases later Aaron Cruden kicked over the first points of the match to give the All Blacks a 3-0 lead and fully highlight the consequences of Wales not quite being able to fulfil a bold and positive strategy.
Giving up kickable penalty chances is going to draw attention (just ask Chris Robshaw), but especially so when the scores are level and the opponents are the world champions. Wales took criticism; New Zealand coach Steve Hansen said opting away from the kicking tee was “crazy”. “Either they didn’t think we were going to score many points or they felt they could score often,” he said. Media coverage dictates that Hansen needs to be reserved in the assessment of his own team, but the statistics don’t, New Zealand have scored, on average, 34 points per Test against Wales at the Millennium Stadium and, coincidentally, 34 points per Test against all opponents in 2012, so as good as Wales might be, the All Blacks were still going to score points. In comparison, Wales’ average score in Tests against New Zealand at the Millennium Stadium was a relatively uncompetitive 14. However, if Wales could get most of their average on the scoreboard before New Zealand could get any of theirs, things could be different. Sure, three points in the first couple of minutes can put you ahead, but five or seven points, even that early on, can put your opponents under game-changing pressure and push the odds back in your direction.
The small margins that were so kind to Wales during the 2011 Rugby World Cup and 2012 Six Nations have turned against them. It’s not so hard to imagine the alternative outcome, where Priestland’s kick to touch passes the right side the flag and Wales’ 13-man lineout drives over (as they did later on) for the match’s first points to put New Zealand under pressure. High-risk strategies are just that however and they can go as wrong as they can go right, but Wales didn’t give up after Cruden’s penalty. At their first lineout after the restart Matthew Rees threw into the space between the jumping pods and Mike Phillips charged through the hole to get the All Blacks going backwards. The phase play that followed took Wales into New Zealand’s 22 before a loose Phillips pass was knocked on by Jamie Roberts as he was attended by New Zealand’s back row and another chance to apply scoreboard pressure was lost.
The All Blacks drove home the necessity of making such risky tactics pay as Cruden routinely knocked over any kicks that came his way before a trademark lethal counter-attack brought the match’s first try in the 26th minute, Liam Messam eventually putting the ball down to make it 14-0 after Israel Dagg had broken tackles and escaped from his own half. Then, just a few minutes before half time, New Zealand rubbed salt in Wales’ wounds by kicking a penalty into touch for a 5m lineout, then recalling the neat move from their Rugby World Cup final victory against France, Tony Woodcock running between the pods to catch Sam Whitelock’s knock-down and score their second try. Cruden’s conversion made the half-time score 23-0; a stinging lesson.
Woodcock’s try was at least a decent reminder that ‘unexpected’ can be glorious, and that’s why Wales’ tactics might just have worked – because few teams would try that sort of thing and nobody tries it against New Zealand. For that we must salute Wales’ bravery, for being prepared to ignore the existing and then inevitable criticism to not only think, but actually act differently; to try and find a way to take a match that bookmakers said they had nine times less chance of winning. The tactics produced opportunities, they just weren’t taken and then New Zealand did exactly what history said they would do at the Millennium Stadium, put 30+ points on the scoreboard.
In the 57th minute Wales finally got the chance to exhibit their earlier intentions. From a much friendlier field position Priestland kicked the ball into touch on New Zealand’s 5m line. Even though a 13-man lineout isn’t so daring and courageous when you’re 33-0 down, at least it worked. Aaron Shingler was hoisted to claim the catch and, outnumbered 13 to eight in the lineout with their midfield defenders out marking thin air, the All Blacks were easily driven back over their line, Scott Williams the last to emerge from the pile of bodies for Wales’ first points of the match. It had no ultimate effect on the result of course, but it drew a huge roar from the home crowd and clearly lifted the spirits on the field. At the very least Wales would have wondered what might have been had they managed to pull the move off in the opening minutes of the match, as intended. The final result could well have been different.
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