TRC 2013 – The importance of the highveld

How many times have you heard the ‘highveld’ mentioned in reference to South Africa’s home Test matches and wondered precisely what was meant by the term? People often talk about playing conditions being different up on the highveld, but what exactly do they mean and, more importantly, is it a help or hinderance for Springbok rugby?

According to the Encyclopedia Britannica, the highveld is a broad, grassy plateau
that sweeps across the South African interior, rising to elevations of 1,800m (6,000ft) in the east and sloping to about 1,200m (4,000ft) in the west. Most notably, from a rugby perspective, it incorporates the cities of:

  • Johannesburg (Gauteng) – elevation 1,753m (5,751ft)
  • Pretoria (northern Gauteng) – elevation 1,271m (4,170ft)
  • Bloemfontein (Free State) – elevation 1,395m (4,577ft)

South Africa’s major Test venues of Ellis Park, FNB Stadium (Johannesburg), Loftus Versfeld (Pretoria) and Free State Stadium (Bloemfontein) are all within this area, while the cities of Kimberley (1,184m), Springs (1,627m), Rustenberg (1,170m) and Witbank (1,635m) have also hosted Springbok Tests and are considered part of the highveld.

highveld1

The general public view with highveld matches is that they are an advantage to South Africa in a similar way that South American countries Ecuador and Bolivia are seen to benefit from playing football matches at altitude in Quito (2,850m) and La Paz (3,640m) respectively. In theory, the Springboks gain a familiarity advantage, in terms of being accustomed to the conditions while playing at higher elevations, specifically in reference to control of the greater kicking distances possible through the thinner air, and making the most of increased space and attacking opportunities when opposition teams tire towards the end of matches. But is it true?

Since their first Test match in 1891 against a British team in Port Elizabeth, South Africa have played 226 home Test matches at 20 different venues, 12 of them on the highveld. In 110 Tests on the highveld the Springboks have a 68% success rate, but in 116 at non-highveld venues their success rate is 70%, so taking just winning percentages into account there appears to be no advantage for South Africa when they play at altitude, indeed it is (marginally) the reverse, however it only ‘appears to be’ because if you look a little further into the numbers, the picture changes a little.

Firstly, over that period the Springboks have been more prolific at highveld venues, scoring 54% of their total points there, and in six less Tests. In addition, they average almost six points more (27.54) per match in Tests on the highveld than (21.86) at lower altitude/sea level home venues. Opponents also score heavier on the highveld than the other venues, but at an average over 10 points less (16.86) per match than the Springboks, indicating there is some advantage for  the home team when it comes to scoring points.

Secondly, in the 21 years since South Africa’s re-entry into international rugby in 1992, the Springboks have played 114 home Tests, two more than the 112 they had played in the 101 years before, and if you look at just that section of matches, the win percentages mentioned above are actually reversed, and a little more pronounced. In 58 Tests on the highveld since 1992 the Springboks have a 76% success rate, compared to 71% in 56 Tests at non-highveld venues. This could certainly suggest that, with significant extra exposure, modern South Africa teams have learned to play the highveld conditions quicker and better than their opponents.

When we look at it from the perspective of point scoring however, again things change. While the Springboks are almost five points (4.79) better on the highveld than they are in other home matches, their opponents are above five (5.56) which means South Africa’s highveld Tests since 1992 have, on average, been closer matches by almost a point. While the Springboks have won more often at highveld venues, their opponents have scored 58% of their points total in those Tests, which contradicts the idea that South Africa enjoy a notable highveld playing advantage.

So the jury is still very much out on whether the highveld is or isn’t helpful for the Springboks, but what happens if we refine the criteria further, and look at home Tests only against South Africa’s main rivals, Australia and New Zealand, in the professional era? The southern hemisphere’s ‘big three’ started playing each other annually with the inauguration of the Tri Nations in 1996 and since then South Africa have played 43 home Tests against their strongest opponents, and it’s here we find some significant differences in highveld success rates.

The Springboks have won 66.67% of 24 highveld home Tests against Australia and New Zealand since 1996, but in the same time have won only 52.63% of 19 Tests against
the same opponents at other home venues. If you look at points scoring, there’s also a big effect, with South Africa averaging over 12 points more per match on the highveld (30.71) than they do at other home Tests (18.53). On the face of it, that seems impressive, that the highveld does the job it’s supposed to do when the Springboks face their toughest matches, but there’s more, and it’s particularly relevant given their coming Ellis Park match against the All Blacks.

Those stats are heavily skewed by an impressive highveld record against the Wallabies – just one defeat in 12 Tests, but against New Zealand it’s a different story. While the highveld’s dry, hard grounds mean more points for South Africa, they also suit the All Blacks’ natural attacking style. On average, New Zealand (32.25) are just over five points better per match than South Africa (26.92) when playing on the highveld.

> South Africa’s last win against New Zealand at Ellis Park was in 2004

In order to claim the 2013 Rugby Championship title South Africa not only need to beat New Zealand, but claim a bonus point AND stop their opponents from doing the same. The highveld has been a friend to Springbok rugby in the professional era, but the All Blacks have generally been the exception to the rule – so which team will find Ellis Park’s highveld more to their liking? History says New Zealand.

@thegainline

Other tGL articles from the 2013 Rugby Championship
Out of the Shadows
Can the Springboks take Eden Park?
Down Under Pressure
Efficiency NOT an ugly word

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